Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Which Exit poll to believe or not to?


There is a crazy rush to be the first one to get it out. To get it right, we will have to wait just a couple of days, till Dec 8 afternoon to be precise. Here is what they are saying today: Delhi Zee: The C-voter exit poll results show that BJP might get 29 seats, Congress 21, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) 16 and Others 4. According to the Times Now-C voter survey, Congress will bag 21 seats, BJP to win 29, and the new political outfit AAP 16, while Others will get 4. According to the ABP News-Nielsen survey, BJP is expected to get 32 seats, Congress will get 18 and AAP will bag 18, while Others will manage to bag 2. India Today-ORG survey also predicted handsome victory for the BJP. The survey conducted shows that Congress will get 21 seats, BJP to win big with 41, Kejriwal’s AAP will manage 6 and Others will get 3. Madhya Pradesh Voting was held in two phases for 230 Assembly seats in Madhya Pradesh. The C-Voter-NWS exit poll results indicate that the ruling BJP will win around 123-133 seats, Congress 87-97, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 8 and Others will bag between 2-6. Times Now-Today’s Chanakya survey predicted handsome victory for the BJP with 161 seats, while Congress 62 and Others 7. According to the India TV-C Voter survey, BJP is expected to bag 128 seats, Congress 92, whereas Others 10. In 2008, the BJP had won 143 seats, Congress 71, BSP seven and the other parties together nine seats. Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popularity has pulled the BJP across the finish line in Madhya Pradesh, with the party set to win 41 percent of the popular vote, according to an exit poll survey by CNN-IBN and The Week. In terms of a seat breakdown, the exit poll survey showed that the BJP is set to win between 136 – 146 seats, while the Congress will win 67 -77. This is despite clear signs of unhappiness with sitting MLAs from the BJP. And the key reason for this result, it seems, is Shivraj Singh Chouhan. Rajasthan Zee: It seems Narendra Modi’s magic has worked for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the recently held Assembly elections, with exit poll surveys predicting handsome victory for the principle Opposition party. According to C-Voter-NWS exit polls, Congress is expected to win around 43-53 seats, BJP 125-135, Bahujan Samaj Party 2-6 and Others 14. India TV-C-voter survey indicated that Congress will bag 48, BJP to win 130 and Others 21 (BSP 4). In 2008, the Congress had won 95 seats, the BJP 78, BSP six and others 20 seats. Chhattisgarh The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are engaged in a tough contest in Chhattisgarh, with neither of the parties getting a majority, exit polls surveys said on Wednesday. Chhattisgarh which went to polls in two phases has 90 Assembly seats. According to exit poll survey conducted by C-Voter-NWS neither the Congress or the BJP is getting a majority. While the ruling BJP is expected to win 44 seats, Congress will get 41. A survey conducted by CNN-IBN, CSDS and the Week says that BJP will win anything between 45-55 seats in the state. According to the India TV-CVoter exit polls, in Chhattisgarh, the BJP may be two seats short of a simple majority in the 90-member Assembly. The BJP is projected to win 44 of the total 90 seats. The Congress is likely to win 41 seats, the BSP two seats and others three seats. However, India Today-ORG exit poll survey predicted a big win for the BJP. The survey said that the ruling government under Raman Singh will bag 53 seats and the Opposition Congress will manage only 33. In 2008, the BJP had won 50 seats, the Congress 38 seats, and others two seats. Hung Assembly in ‘Media-Neglected’ Mizoram In Congress-ruled Mizoram, the ruling party is projected to win 19 seats of the total 40 seats. The Mizo National Front (MNF) plus Mizo People's Conference (MPC) is likely to win 14 seats, the Zoram Nationalist Party (ZNP) five seats, and others two seats. In 2008, the Congress had won 32 seats, MNF plus MPC had won six, and ZNP had won two seats. The Correspondent Bureau

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